Hopes for ending the government shutdown after a week of bluster in Washington could hinge on negotiations about reviving expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.
But timing is the issue.
Republicans are dug into a position that they will only talk about this healthcare issue once Democrats vote to end the shutdown. Democrats respond that any conversation about those subsidies must take place now, saying a shutdown vote is the only mechanism they have to force Republicans to confront the issue.
Short of moderate Senate Democrats flipping to support the GOP plan, which remains a possibility, this healthcare debate is increasingly seen as the likeliest eventual avenue for negotiations that could reopen the government.
President Trump in the Oval Office of the White House on Monday. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images) ·Anna Moneymaker via Getty Images
The latest hint came from the president himself on Monday, when President Trump told reporters that “we have a negotiation going on right now” around healthcare and that he would be interested in making “the right deal.”
It was a claim immediately contradicted by Democrats — who noted they haven’t heard anything from the White House in a week — with Trump then walking back his position a few hours later on social media.
The president’s follow-up post put him back in line with the Republican stance that he is open to talks with Democrats, “but first they must allow our Government to re-open.”
The question for investors and market watchers is increasingly how long it will take both parties to even come to the table.
Read more: How the government shutdown affects your student loans, Social Security, and more
At issue are enhanced Affordable Care Act healthcare tax credits set to expire at the end of this year. That could raise premiums for Americans covered by these plans, which are offered outside of employer-run programs.
These enhanced tax credits were first introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequently extended early in the term of former President Joe Biden to increase the financial assistance available to marketplace enrollees.
A “closed” sign is seen outside the National Gallery of Art’s sculpture garden on Oct. 6 as the US government continues its shutdown. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images) ·ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS via Getty Images
Extending these credits is just one of three Democratic asks. Others are reversing Medicaid cuts enacted by Republicans this summer, as well as limiting the president’s ability to unilaterally cancel previously approved government spending.
Those two requests are steep political climbs — and amount to asking Republicans to reverse central elements of Trump’s second term — but with a notable GOP openness on the tax credits issue.
A press conference with House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday at the Capitol offered just the latest example.
Johnson said he supported talks to “adjust Obamacare so it will work for more people,” but only after Democrats accede on the shutdown.
The press conference also showed how the looming deadline for these credits has created a challenge for Republicans. Johnson first called it a “December policy issue,” but then, under questioning, acknowledged that notices about increased premiums could be sent out in November, making this an issue that needs to be addressed sooner.
The Democrats’ response has been to say they simply don’t believe Republicans will allow any conversations if the party gives up its shutdown leverage.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said over the weekend that Johnson won’t allow a subsidy extension “until the American people force him to.” He then added on Monday evening, “Republicans should understand that they cannot go forward unless we come to a bipartisan agreement to address the healthcare crisis.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune speaks to journalists about the federal government shutdown outside his office at the Capitol on Oct. 6. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) ·Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images
But any future talks will need to wrestle with the divisiveness of these tax credits among Republicans, as plans emerge to incorporate a one-year extension of the credits into future shutdown negotiations.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia got plenty of notice this week when she announced she is interested in an extension, saying that without action, “my own adult children’s insurance premiums for 2026 are going to DOUBLE.”
But it’s a fierce debate, with many Republicans showing no interest in extending any element of former President Barack Obama’s signature law.
One of the loudest opponents is Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, who wrote a message to his party in a letter to the Wall Street Journal saying, “This Is No Time to Go Wobbly on ObamaCare.”
How that debate is resolved remains to be seen, but for now, party positions appear set and focused on the Groundhog Day approach of voting again and again on apparently unworkable plans.
The Senate is set to hold a sixth series of votes on Tuesday — with little expectation that there will be any improvement on the record so far of zero for five.
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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